So, while procrastinating for a politics essay due tomorrow I got to thinking about alternate history scenarios. According to wikipedia the two most common points of divergence for alt history are the standard Nazis win WW2 and the south wins the Civil War, both of which I find tedious. Another common one I think is Napoleon wins Waterloo, and because I don't like French people I won't treat with that one.
I do find it interesting that most alternate history scenarios involve war, but I suppose war is the main driver for change in history and people find it interesting. So I came up with a scenario of my own and a historical justification of my own.
SirEmilCrane studios proudly present
The Central Powers win WW1
And how!
This theory relies on two premises, first, that German defeat was brought upon by economic collapse because it could not import the goods it needed by sea, and it couldn't do so because of British domination of the seas and also that the entry of America into the war (which saved the Allies from economic collapse) was brought upon by German unrestricted submarine warfare upon American commerce. For full details of this theory see Robert K. Massey's Castles of Steel: Britain, Germany and the winning of the Great War at Sea
Now here's how my theory goes. War breaks out as usual in 1914, starting with Serbia then Russia finally dragging everyone in by August 4 1914 when Britain declares war on Germany for invading Belgium. At the present time Germany is about to enact its schlieffen plan to invade France through Belgium, bypassing the heavy french defenses in Lorraine while simultaneously preparing to hold off the massive Russian Juggernaut in the east.
For the first months the war follows its historical course, the Germans are halted at the Marne and the Russians halted at Tannenberg, resulting in stalemate that can only be broken when one side run out of stuff. Now all the armies exist only to chew resources up and you just hope your opponent chews up his faster than you do yours. The problem for the Germans was that the royal navy could interdict supplies they received from neutral trade. Germany tried early commerce raiding and submarine warfare but its was very restricted and the risk of angering the US a valuable trading partner for both sides, was great.
The historical divergence begins on 16th of December 1914. fearing coastal raids on Britain (which is what happened, several coastal towns were bombarded) The British are forced to split their numerically superior navy to protect their coastal towns. The Germans assemble tow task forces, 5 battle cruisers to raid the towns and a force of 22 battleships to cover them. In response Britain sends 6 battleships and 4 battlecruisers to oppose them, not knowing about the 22 ship force waiting for them.
What really happened: The destroyer screen engaged then the fleets, each fearing that they were about to encounter the full strength of the other, disengaged without firing a shot or even seeing other.
What could have happened: What if the germans had realized they had the numerical superiority and engaged. The brits would have been outnumbered by more than 2:1 and annihilated. With victory at the Battle of Dogger Bank (where the fleets met) would have evened the odds for Germany.
With the losses Britain would have had 18 dreadnoughts, with 10 new ones n the way for 1915-16, and 5 battlecruisers, with 5 more in planning, germany on the other hand would have had 5 battlecruisers with 5 more in the works and 17 dreadnoughts, with another 5 in the works.
What this means is that for a limited time the German navy would have had near strategic parity with the royal navy. After this they could organize a strike at a time of their choosing upon the Royal Navy probably sometime in early 1915 before the Queen Elizabeth class battleships arrived.
So now we have 18 battleships vs 17 battleships and An even battlecruiser fight. So the question is, how would the fight have gone? Using knowledge of the battle of Jutland and how that went this is how I can imagine the fight would have happened. Times and dates my own, this is assuming that the British have assembled their full fleet strength and are meeting the German Navy somewhere in the north sea.
2nd February 1915, early morning
The German navy puts to sea in the early hours of the morning, the battlecruisers under Hipper first, then the High Seas Fleet under Scheer an hour later. Realizing that the British were aware of their movements somehow (but refusing to believe that their code had been broken) they know that they will have to engage the Royal Navy in force.
An hour later, the Grand fleet under Jellicoe put to sea, supported by the now reduced battlecruisers under Admiral Evan-Thomas (likely successor to the historical Beatty who would have been killed at Dogger Bank). The fleets continue on for a while until meeting at 11:00 somewhere in the north sea.
Battlecruiser Action, 11AM
After the two fleets screens engaged and disengaged the battlecruisers set out to ascertain the likely strength of their opponents and ran straight into each other. The battlecruisers engaged at a ranger of 10 000 yards, each targeting their opposite number.
Straight away problems in the design of the British ships (which were present at the battle of Jutland). Without deck armor the battlecruisers were prone to magazine explosion. In the engagement Invincible, Indefatigable and Inflexible were blown up, leaving Evan-Thomas with Princess Royal and Indomitable, British gunnery however, managed to seriously damage Lutzow and Seydlitz and sink Von der Tann. Realizing he could lose both his ships, Evan-Thomas retreated, eventually having to scuttle Indomitable off the coast of Scotland.
Fleet action 1AM
Seeing their battlecruisers virtually destroy each other the fleets prepared for action and formed the battle line. With only a numerical advantage of to the british and without battlecruisers the fight was fairly even. The gunnery lasted for 30 minutes before Shceer realized that he would lose by attrition, both navies had two battleships each retire due to damage, but no sinkings as of yet. Scheer ordered a full change on the british line by his battlecruisers and destroyers, launching a torpedo attack. This move put the British into disarray and two dreadnoughts, HMS Erin and HMS Canada were lost. However, the british managed to sink Lutzow, many german destoryers and so cripple Seydlitz that she floated dead in the water for a time, refusing to sink. Jellicoe, realizing that he could lose his fleet, retreated.
Pursuit
The germans gave chase, but not before attending to the survivors of the sunken ships, Seydlitz finally sank an hour after the battle. Hipper transferred his command to Derfflinger. As the Germans chased the british into the night destroyers and light cruisers fought it out mercilessly, causing many losses on both sides. Around 6 at night the Germans caught up to Jellicoe, who revived some unlikely reinforcements. In a panic the admiralty has sent 6 predreadnought battleships, ships so thoroughly outclassed by now that they were only good for absorbing damage to aid Jellicoe. With the british navy about to be caught the pre-dreadnoughts and Princess Royal returned to the fight. All six of the aging battleships were sunk by a combination of gunfire and torpedoes but the British fleet managed to escape.
Final losses:
Germany:
3 Battlecruisers (Seydlitz, Von Der Tann and Lutzow) all to gunfire
British
4 battlecruisers (Indomitable, Indefatigable, Inflexible, Invincible) 3 to explosions, 1 to gunfire, scuttled by crew
6 predreadnoughts (Commonwealth, Hindustan, Zelandia, Dominion, Britannia, Africa) 4 to gunfire, 1 scuttled, one to torpedoes
2 battleships (Erin, Canada) to torpedoes
In addition both sides suffered extensive damage to all other ships
Final result: British navy surrenders the north sea to the germans, who can now continue importing what they need from the rest of the world.
(As I said earlier, this battle is how I estimate the fleets would have fared had they met in these circumstances)
After the battle germany continues building battleships and battlecruisers as the Kaiser diverts more and more resources to his beloved fleet. Whule British ships keep getting made, they are pent up in Scapa Floe for fear of losing them. Newly built german battlecruisers and submarines prowl the North Sea.
The war on land continues on, even with the naval loss both sides still possess considerable reserves. The french and Austrian navies clash ineffectively in the Mediterranean. With homeland defense so important now no gallipoli happens, Ottoman troops are freed to put more and more pressure on the Russians. The revolution happens in 1917 and Russia leaves the war in 1918. The USA, its trade unimpeded by either side, stays out of the war. By 1917 cracks are beginning to appear in french army discipline (this actually did happen) and the allies are faced with the very real threat of economic collapse, unbeknownst to them so is Germany, but the trade is beginning to help germany stay in the game. The german navy is now free to interdict british shipping with ease, and with less wanton destruction than the submarines caused historically. Americans realize that trade with germany is more profitable than trade with Britain, who's position looks ever more shaky.
With the withdrawal of Russia the Germans free up manpower for an assault on the Western front, launched in Spring 1918. Without American manpower the assault gains considerable ground. The Western allies suffer a series of reverses. First the French army morale breaks, some units desert, others mutiny and many still remain in place, holding their ground but listening to no orders. Britain is faced with a hard choice. She possesses the manpower to repel this attack but to do so would be problematic. Revolts are starting in South Africa, India and Ireland, tying up large amounts of Colonial troops. Anzac and Canadian forces, who bear the brunt of the intense fighting are spent. Britain has massive reserves at home, but if she were to commit them then he would leave the home islands undefended. The British government then mode the most controversial decision of the war, they "lost the war to save the empire" and on July 21st 1918 Britain requested peace, the same day German troops were entering the outskirts of Paris. France quickly fell into line, along with Italy.
The last battle of the war, in the Italian Alps fought by Italian, British and Austrain troops, defeated an Austrain offensive into Italy and secured that nation's independence.
The war ends with British troops going home, knowing they will be called upon soon to defend a collapsing empire, France being forced to comply with occupation and the Central Powers preparing to enter post war peace negotiations, this time around as the victors.
Now why did I tell you that story? Well, I needed a creative vent, as its been brewing in my head for days and needed to spit it out. So comments, questions, if you don't understand things I can explain. We can discuss my theory and what the post war world would look like or you can post your own theories.
I'll continue this story right up to world war 2 if you like (it gets a bit less realistic later on, but no unbelievably so)