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Offline SirEmilCrane

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Alternate History?
« on: April 15, 2013, 04:11:56 AM »
So, while procrastinating for a politics essay due tomorrow I got to thinking about alternate history scenarios. According to wikipedia the two most common points of divergence for alt history are the standard Nazis win WW2 and the south wins the Civil War, both of which I find tedious. Another common one I think is Napoleon wins Waterloo, and because I don't like French people I won't treat with that one.

I do find it interesting that most alternate history scenarios involve war, but I suppose war is the main driver for change in history and people find it interesting. So I came up with a scenario of my own and a historical justification of my own.

SirEmilCrane studios proudly present

The Central Powers win WW1

And how!

This theory relies on two premises, first, that German defeat was brought upon by economic collapse because it could not import the goods it needed by sea, and it couldn't do so because of British domination of the seas and also that the entry of America into the war (which saved the Allies from economic collapse) was brought upon by German unrestricted submarine warfare upon American commerce. For full details of this theory see Robert K. Massey's Castles of Steel: Britain, Germany and the winning of the Great War at Sea

Now here's how my theory goes. War breaks out as usual in 1914, starting with Serbia then Russia finally dragging everyone in by August 4 1914 when Britain declares war on Germany for invading Belgium. At the present time Germany is about to enact its schlieffen plan to invade France through Belgium, bypassing the heavy french defenses in Lorraine while simultaneously preparing to hold off the massive Russian Juggernaut in the east.

For the first months the war follows its historical course, the Germans are halted at the Marne and the Russians halted at Tannenberg, resulting in stalemate that can only be broken when one side run out of stuff. Now all the armies exist only to chew resources up and you just hope your opponent chews up his faster than you do yours. The problem for the Germans was that the royal navy could interdict supplies they received from neutral trade. Germany tried early commerce raiding and submarine warfare but its was very restricted and the risk of angering the US a valuable trading partner for both sides, was great.

The historical divergence begins on 16th of December 1914. fearing coastal raids on Britain (which is what happened, several coastal towns were bombarded) The British are forced to split their numerically superior navy to protect their coastal towns. The Germans assemble tow task forces, 5 battle cruisers to raid the towns and a force of 22 battleships to cover them. In response Britain sends 6 battleships and 4 battlecruisers to oppose them, not knowing about the 22 ship force waiting for them.

What really happened: The destroyer screen engaged then the fleets, each fearing that they were about to encounter the full strength of the other, disengaged without firing a shot or even seeing other.

What could have happened: What if the germans had realized they had the numerical superiority and engaged. The brits would have been outnumbered by more than 2:1 and annihilated. With victory at the Battle of Dogger Bank (where the fleets met) would have evened the odds for Germany.

With the losses Britain would have had 18 dreadnoughts, with 10 new ones n the way for 1915-16, and 5 battlecruisers, with 5 more in planning, germany on the other hand would have had 5 battlecruisers with 5 more in the works and 17 dreadnoughts, with another 5 in the works.

What this means is that for a limited time the German navy would have had near strategic parity with the royal navy. After this they could organize a strike at a time of their choosing upon the Royal Navy probably sometime in early 1915 before the Queen Elizabeth class battleships arrived.

So now we have 18 battleships vs 17 battleships and An even battlecruiser fight. So the question is, how would the fight have gone? Using knowledge of the battle of Jutland and how that went this is how I can imagine the fight would have happened. Times and dates my own, this is assuming that the British have assembled their full fleet strength and are meeting the German Navy somewhere in the north sea.

2nd February 1915, early morning

The German navy puts to sea in the early hours of the morning, the battlecruisers under Hipper first, then the High Seas Fleet under Scheer an hour later. Realizing that the British were aware of their movements somehow (but refusing to believe that their code had been broken) they know that they will have to engage the Royal Navy in force.

An hour later, the Grand fleet under Jellicoe put to sea, supported by the now reduced battlecruisers under Admiral Evan-Thomas (likely successor to the historical Beatty who would have been killed at Dogger Bank). The fleets continue on for a while until meeting at 11:00 somewhere in the north sea.

Battlecruiser Action, 11AM

After the two fleets screens engaged and disengaged the battlecruisers set out to ascertain the likely strength of their opponents and ran straight into each other. The battlecruisers engaged at a ranger of 10 000 yards, each targeting their opposite number.

Straight away problems in the design of the British ships (which were present at the battle of Jutland). Without deck armor the battlecruisers were prone to magazine explosion. In the engagement Invincible, Indefatigable and Inflexible were blown up, leaving Evan-Thomas with Princess Royal and Indomitable, British gunnery however, managed to seriously damage Lutzow and Seydlitz and sink Von der Tann. Realizing he could lose both his ships, Evan-Thomas retreated, eventually having to scuttle Indomitable off the coast of Scotland.

Fleet action 1AM

Seeing their battlecruisers virtually destroy each other the fleets prepared for action and formed the battle line. With only a numerical advantage of  to the british and without battlecruisers the fight was fairly even. The gunnery lasted for 30 minutes before Shceer realized that he would lose by attrition, both navies had two battleships each retire due to damage, but no sinkings as of yet. Scheer ordered a full change on the british line by his battlecruisers and destroyers, launching a torpedo attack. This move put the British into disarray and two dreadnoughts, HMS Erin and HMS Canada were lost. However, the british managed to sink Lutzow, many german destoryers and so cripple Seydlitz that she floated dead in the water for a time, refusing to sink. Jellicoe, realizing that he could lose his fleet, retreated.

Pursuit

The germans gave chase, but not before attending to the survivors of the sunken ships, Seydlitz finally sank an hour after the battle. Hipper transferred his command to Derfflinger. As the Germans chased the british into the night destroyers and light cruisers fought it out mercilessly, causing many losses on both sides. Around 6 at night the Germans caught up to Jellicoe, who revived some unlikely reinforcements. In a panic the admiralty has sent 6 predreadnought battleships, ships so thoroughly outclassed by now that they were only good for absorbing damage to aid Jellicoe. With the british navy about to be caught the pre-dreadnoughts and Princess Royal returned to the fight. All six of the aging battleships were sunk by a combination of gunfire and torpedoes but the British fleet managed to escape.

Final losses:
Germany:
3 Battlecruisers (Seydlitz, Von Der Tann and Lutzow) all to gunfire

British
4 battlecruisers (Indomitable, Indefatigable, Inflexible, Invincible) 3 to explosions, 1 to gunfire, scuttled by crew
6 predreadnoughts (Commonwealth, Hindustan, Zelandia, Dominion, Britannia, Africa) 4 to gunfire, 1 scuttled, one to torpedoes
2 battleships (Erin, Canada) to torpedoes

In addition both sides suffered extensive damage to all other ships

Final result: British navy surrenders the north sea to the germans, who can now continue importing what they need from the rest of the world.     

(As I said earlier, this battle is how I estimate the fleets would have fared had they met in these circumstances)

After the battle germany continues building battleships and battlecruisers as the Kaiser diverts more and more resources to his beloved fleet. Whule British ships keep getting made, they are pent up in Scapa Floe for fear of losing them. Newly built german battlecruisers and submarines prowl the North Sea.

The war on land continues on, even with the naval loss both sides still possess considerable reserves. The french and Austrian navies clash ineffectively in the Mediterranean. With homeland defense so important now no gallipoli happens, Ottoman troops are freed to put more and more pressure on the Russians. The revolution happens in 1917 and Russia leaves the war in 1918. The USA, its trade unimpeded by either side, stays out of the war. By 1917 cracks are beginning to appear in french army discipline (this actually did happen) and the allies are faced with the very real threat of economic collapse, unbeknownst to them so is Germany, but the trade is beginning to help germany stay in the game. The german navy is now free to interdict british shipping with ease, and with less wanton destruction than the submarines caused historically. Americans realize that trade with germany is more profitable than trade with Britain, who's position looks ever more shaky.

With the withdrawal of Russia the Germans free up manpower for an assault on the Western front, launched in Spring 1918. Without American manpower the assault gains considerable ground. The Western allies suffer a series of reverses. First the French army morale breaks, some units desert, others mutiny and many still remain in place, holding their ground but listening to no orders. Britain is faced with a hard choice. She possesses the manpower to repel this attack but to do so would be problematic. Revolts are starting in South Africa, India and Ireland, tying up large amounts of Colonial troops. Anzac and Canadian forces, who bear the brunt of the intense fighting are spent. Britain has massive reserves at home, but if she were to commit them then he would leave the home islands undefended. The British government then mode the most controversial decision of the war, they "lost the war to save the empire" and on July 21st 1918 Britain requested peace, the same day German troops were entering the outskirts of Paris. France quickly fell into line, along with Italy.

The last battle of the war, in the Italian Alps fought by Italian, British and Austrain troops, defeated an Austrain offensive into Italy and secured that nation's independence.

The war ends with British troops going home, knowing they will be called upon soon to defend a collapsing empire, France being forced to comply with occupation and the Central Powers preparing to enter post war peace negotiations, this time around as the victors.

Now why did I tell you that story? Well, I needed a creative vent, as its been brewing in my head for days and needed to spit it out. So comments, questions, if you don't understand things I can explain. We can discuss my theory and what the post war world would look like or you can post your own theories.

I'll continue this story right up to world war 2 if you like (it gets a bit less realistic later on, but no unbelievably so)       
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Offline Grif101

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Re: Alternate History?
« Reply #1 on: April 15, 2013, 05:25:56 AM »
Very interesting read, more realistic than other Great War ATL's I've read (most of them have the American's joining the Central Powers, for some reason).

If you continue this, it's going to be interesting to see how the British Empire will handle this post-war. With Germany ascendant and Britain's allies occupied, in revolution or otherwise out of the picture, thing's are going to be much different. An interesting thing is that this timeline would probably take Hitler out of the picture, as a major force, and might possibly lead to a British or French Hitler instead (perhaps Mosley or Cleamance?).

I probably got the last name wrong.
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Offline SirEmilCrane

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Re: Alternate History?
« Reply #2 on: April 15, 2013, 06:26:22 AM »
Very interesting read, more realistic than other Great War ATL's I've read (most of them have the American's joining the Central Powers, for some reason).

If you continue this, it's going to be interesting to see how the British Empire will handle this post-war. With Germany ascendant and Britain's allies occupied, in revolution or otherwise out of the picture, thing's are going to be much different. An interesting thing is that this timeline would probably take Hitler out of the picture, as a major force, and might possibly lead to a British or French Hitler instead (perhaps Mosley or Cleamance?).

I probably got the last name wrong.

There will be a Hitler like person, but you probably won't expect where he will end up

I'll write the next bit tomorrow
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Offline Tobbs

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Re: Alternate History?
« Reply #3 on: April 15, 2013, 07:07:59 AM »
This seems very interesting. But perhaps there would have been good things in the Central Powers winning that war. I mean, would there still be a WWII? If so, when would that be?

Oh god I love alternate history.

Keep calm and move along.

Offline PMorgan18

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Re: Alternate History?
« Reply #4 on: April 15, 2013, 09:29:33 AM »
Very good.  Alternate history really makes you think how one little engagement can have a huge after effect.

I'll throw in my favorite alternate history series:
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Southern_Victory_Series

It covers from a Confederate victory of the Civil War all the way to the end of World War II.

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Offline Grif101

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Re: Alternate History?
« Reply #5 on: April 15, 2013, 09:41:45 AM »
Very good.  Alternate history really makes you think how one little engagement can have a huge after effect.

I'll throw in my favorite alternate history series:
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Southern_Victory_Series

It covers from a Confederate victory of the Civil War all the way to the end of World War II.

Ah yes, the infamous Timeline-191 series.  :dry:
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Offline Tobbs

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Re: Alternate History?
« Reply #6 on: April 15, 2013, 11:39:58 AM »
Whenever I look up theories people have made about alternate history, I often get a good laugh when it comes to World War II as many keep using a pattern where Germany conquers every inch of the world if they win. And then they say that they seriously believe that would have happened :D

Keep calm and move along.

Offline PMorgan18

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Re: Alternate History?
« Reply #7 on: April 15, 2013, 11:56:53 AM »
Ah yes, the infamous Timeline-191 series.  :dry:
A great timeline that includes the annexing of Canada.  :D

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Offline SirEmilCrane

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Re: Alternate History?
« Reply #8 on: April 15, 2013, 12:53:30 PM »
Whenever I look up theories people have made about alternate history, I often get a good laugh when it comes to World War II as many keep using a pattern where Germany conquers every inch of the world if they win. And then they say that they seriously believe that would have happened :D

I am of the belief that Germany could not win WWII, at least not in this timeline :D

Its a simply matter of resource control, populations and GDP and of course, the massive naval gap between the axis and allied powers
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Offline Grif101

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Re: Alternate History?
« Reply #9 on: April 15, 2013, 05:00:28 PM »
A great timeline that includes the annexing of Canada.  :D

I really did enjoy the books until that point. When I read about the occupation of Canada, I didn't know whether to burn the book, or beat Harry Turtledove with it.
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Offline Grif101

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Re: Alternate History?
« Reply #10 on: April 15, 2013, 05:02:04 PM »
I am of the belief that Germany could not win WWII, at least not in this timeline :D

Its a simply matter of resource control, populations and GDP and of course, the massive naval gap between the axis and allied powers

Some say it's possible for Germany to have won, if their North African campaign was successful.
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Offline LordNecross

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Re: Alternate History?
« Reply #11 on: April 15, 2013, 08:17:40 PM »
Some say it's possible for Germany to have won, if their North African campaign was successful.
Germany could have Conquered Europe at most. And the North African campaign would have needed to be won.

There biggest mistake was attacking Russia, and lacking in Naval power.

Offline Grif101

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Re: Alternate History?
« Reply #12 on: April 15, 2013, 08:38:03 PM »
Germany could have Conquered Europe at most. And the North African campaign would have needed to be won.

There biggest mistake was attacking Russia, and lacking in Naval power.

True, if Hitler had conquered the Middle East he could've pointed a figurative dagger at the Soviet Caspian Oil Fields. With Middle Eastern oil and Swedish iron ore, he could've kept his war machine going for a long time, and could've made Stalin dance to his tune. He then could've gotten a steady supply of oil from the USSR, as well as resources from the Trans-Siberian Railway. Once Britain was dealt with, he could've easily conquered the Eastern USSR.
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Offline SirEmilCrane

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Re: Alternate History?
« Reply #13 on: April 17, 2013, 12:51:09 AM »
Alright, here's where my story begins to diverge into a bit of theory crafting, but most alternate histories do, the first post was actual historical speculation, now things change a little, rest assured most of this is still grounded in reality, no death rays or alien invasions or the like

1918-1920

The Treaty of Berlin, Russian Civil War and Mexican War

Soon after the end of the Great War the Allied powers are called to Berlin to discuss peace settlements. The talks were headed by the German chancellor Theobald von Bethmann-Hollweg, (who in this case remained in power rather than resigning after the US entered the war). Berthmann-Hollweg was in favor of stripping Britain of her Empire and reducing Italy and France to minor powers, which would assure Germany's dominance in all affairs. However Hollweg's aims were thwarted by his own ruler, Kaiser Wilhelm II. The Kaiser, half British himself and a rather gentlemanly figure ordered Hollweg not to lay too harsh terms on Britain.

As the other powers arrived Germany had finally decided on her terms, Laid out in the treaty of Berlin.

Britain: Would agree to scrap all ships built before 1914 and restrict herself to 15 capital ships. Britain would be forced to grant the Irish independence and surrender her African colonies. Egypt, Somalia, the Sudan Uganda and Kenya would be given to the Ottoman Empire. South Africa, Zimbabwe and Zambia would be given to German, who would surrender all South African territory to a Boer government withing 5 years. Any West African territories would come under German rule. The rest of the Empire was Britain's to keep except for Bermuda and any over seas colonies of Germany's that Britain had taken during the war, these would be be surrendered to Germany.

Italy: Would Surrender all her colonial possessions to the Ottoman Empire. Would agree to reduce her fleet to 5 battleships and no other ships larger than light cruisers. Austria would take Venice and the surrounding areas. Italy would pay massive reparations to Austria for damage caused.

Serbia: Would cease to be. Annexed by Austria.

Romania: Would cease to be. Occupied by Austria indefinitely.

Greece: Not really sure what to do with Greece, Germany leveled some minor reparations at them.

Portugal: Minor Reparations.

Belguim: Ceased to be. Occupied by Germany indefinitely.

Japan: Germany forced Japan to surrender Tsingtao, taken by the Japanese in 1914 and several other Pacific islands. Japan's fleet was reduced to 10 capital ships and she was forced to scrap or sell her armored cruisers.

France: The vast majority of harsh terms were levelled at France. First, France had to agree to a war guilt clause and pay massive reparations. Second her fleet was reduced to five battleships and enough destroyers to screen them. Third, she had to revoke all claims on the Alsace Lorraine region, surrender all of her overseas colonies to Germany and allow German troops to occupy most of northern France for five years.

Territorial changes, summary: The ottoman empire owns Lybia, Egypt, Somalia, the Sudan and Kenya. Austria owns Romania, Serbia and Venice. Germany owns Belguim, West Africa, Poland (as of previous treaty with Russia in early 1918), the Congo, Vietnam, extensive territory in the Pacific, New Guinea.

In addition the Allies were all forced to sign non-aggression pacts with the Central powers.

Berlin Naval Accords: In addition to the peace settlement the naval powers met and decided on naval agreements to prevent any future naval arms race. Germany's motives for this were not exactly humanitarian, the German Navy was fearful of American naval expansion and decided to freeze it in lace while they had the advantage. Hollweg decided to use Britain and Japan both who received relatively minor reprimands for the war, as buffers to the US. Capital ship ratios were set as 4:3:3:2:2:1:1:1 (Germany, Britain, US, Japan, Austria, France, Italy, ottomans) and a ten year ban on capital ship construction was placed, exceptions allowed the British and Germans to finish current projects. Armored cruisers were classified as capital ships and a new class of Heavy Cruisers was created. Heavy cruisers had 8in guns and tonnage limits, but no number cap. For the next 20 years Germany, Japan, the UK and the US would engage in a new "heavy cruiser" race. Submarines and aircraft carriers were banned.

Revolutions and petty wars

In Russia the Civil War was in full swing, initially the White Russians held the advantage and began to push the Communists back. During this time the German and US armies sent troops to protect their assets in the region. Despite this assistance the Whites were eventually defeated and the Communists took power. The German Navy bombarded Petrograd in 1920, reducing the town to cinders and killing thousands. Minor skirmishes took place in Poland between German and soviet troops until 1922, when all contact with the Soviet Union was cut off. For the next 17 years the country would remain a mystery.

In 1916 the United States began to send troops to Mexico, initially to protect American citizens. Without entry to World War One the US became more and more involved in Mexico, first sending a small force, then eventually several divisions and finally mobilizing for full scale war once the government fell to the revolutionaries in 1920. US forces, organized into three main armies moved south of the border. The US 1st Army, under General Pershing moved into Coahuila and Neuvo Leon, smashing Mexican forces arrayed against them. The 2nd Army under General Hines fought into Chihuahua and Sonora while the 3rd Army under the newly promoted General MacArthur seized Baja.

The Mexican revolutionary government mobilized the populace, throwing thousands of soldiers into the path of the oncoming US Army. The 2nd Army very quickly became mired down in guerrilla warfare. MacArthur was forced to detach units from his conquest of Baja to support Hines. Despite these setbacks nothing could stop Pershing and his First Army using tanks developed by Walter Christie under the command of Colonel George S. Patton Jr Pershing smashed his way to Mexico City.

The Mexican war took 6 years, from 1920-1926 and cost over 1 Million lives. Mexican forces were supplied by Germany from 1922 on and used chemical warfare to halt the advancing American troops. In Sonora and Baja, the Guerrilla campaign continued on even after the war was declared over and American soldiers carried out brutal reprisals. In 1926 the US formally annexed Mexico.

The war had a unique effect on the US populace. Americans for the first time learned what real total war was and experienced trench warfare, insurgency and chemical attacks for the first time. In 1925 in the Mexican Air Force managed to drop mustard gas on Austin Texas, killing 100 people. The war hardened racial attitudes in the US and even the most liberal politicians began supporting racial segregation laws.

Next time I'll cover the effects of the war on Britain and the fight to save the empire
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Offline Grif101

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Re: Alternate History?
« Reply #14 on: April 17, 2013, 07:38:52 AM »
Damn, Britain took a hard hit, even if it did get relatively minor reprisals. US annexation of Mexico and the French equivalent of German reparations are the most worrisome though. I'm definitely thinking there's going to be a French Hitler, though I suppose Japan and Russia are candidates too. Hopefully Canada, Australia, New Zealand and whatever else Britain kept stick with the British. Though I wonder if the Mexican War is going to make the US more expansionist and militaristic. Are we going to see the Americans attempt a takeover of Britain's empire at some point?

At any rate, good stuff. This is a good read.
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Offline wisekill1

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Re: Alternate History?
« Reply #15 on: April 17, 2013, 08:53:20 AM »
A very interesting read, just like the last one. I wonder what effect being surrounded by Germany will have for the Netherlands and Luxembourg. I'm looking forward to the next part.
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Offline mikethor007

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Re: Alternate History?
« Reply #16 on: April 17, 2013, 03:26:45 PM »
Hmmmm...quite interesting.

I'm curious about what is going to happen regarding China and South America.
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Offline SirEmilCrane

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Re: Alternate History?
« Reply #17 on: April 17, 2013, 10:34:14 PM »
Hmmmm...quite interesting.

I'm curious about what is going to happen regarding China and South America.

I have plans for them, trust me, most nations will get a mention at least, China and South America will be involved fairly heavily later on
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